Monday, April 12, 2010

Warning Signals for the short term?

Over the years, a country's stockmarkets' total market capitalisation to its GDP ratio has done a very good job of determining long-term returns that an investor can expect from the stock markets. For India, the average market cap to GDP number over the past 2 decades has been 52%. Indian markets were trading near this ratio in March 2009 (when this rally started). And as we stand currently, the markets are back at almost their 2008 peak!

India's Mkt cap to GDP Ratio

A 70-80% range on this ratio indicates that markets are somewhere between moderate valuation and fair valuation. If the ratio exceeds 115% (we are almost there!), the markets are in the overvalued zone where odds of investing are not in the favor of investor.
This ratio is definitely sending some warning signals for the short term. Isn't it?

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